期货行情分析

Futures Market Analysis

Futures Market Guide

First, the concept of basic analysis
Basic analysis is based on commodity production, consumption and stocks (or the gap of supply and demand), according to the commodity's supply and demand relations, and the impact of changes in the relationship between supply and demand factors to predict the trend of commodity prices, analysis methods.
Second, the basic analysis of the characteristics of
Analysis of price changes over the medium and long-term trend
Study the root causes of price changes
Is the analysis of the major macro-economic factors
Third, demand and the relationship between the market price
(A) law of demand
The first category, the kind of commodity prices
The second category, consumer income
The third category, consumer preferences
The fourth category, relevant changes in commodity prices
Fifth, the impact of consumer expectations
(B) elasticity of demand
The price elasticity of demand is demand for price changes reflect the extent. Can be expressed as, when the price changes of 1% when the percentage change in demand.

When the demand for more than a change and demand flexibility when demand changes in less than 1:00, as demand for a lack of flexibility.

The differences affect elasticity of demand factors:
Whether the goods are acceptable alternatives, if there, the demand for greater flexibility;
Income spent on consumer goods on the proportion of the majority, the demand for flexibility;
Consumer prices by the need to adapt to the new time, the longer, more flexible.
(C) demand for a commodity market
Domestic consumption. Their impact factors are: changes in consumer purchasing power, population growth and changes in consumption structure, government revenue and employment policies, these factors on the demand for commodities and futures price is greater than the impact of the spot market;
Export volume.
Guitar end of the stock of goods. This is the analysis of changes in futures prices of the most important reasons for the trend.
Other non-price factors
4, Supply and the relationship between the market price
Supply is in a certain period of time, place and a certain price level, producers or sellers and may be willing to provide some form of the number of goods or services.

(A) law of supply
A decision to supply goods the main factors:
The kind of commodity prices
The level of production technology
Other commodity prices
The cost of production
Producer expected
Generally speaking, the higher the market price of the greater supply, the lower the prices of the smaller supply. -- Supply rules
(B) supply flexibility
Supply flexibility is the price changes in the supply of the sensitivity of the changes, that is, price changes of 1% when the percentage changes in the volume of supply.
Most of the supply of goods in the short term is very inflexible, because producers and because of changes in the market at any time to change production plans.
In addition, changes in supply except for the price but also by many other factors.
(C) the supply of the commodity market constitutes
Early stock. Producer inventories, inventory and operators of government stocks.
The current production capacity. This is a variable, such as agricultural products to consider the sown area, and climatic conditions, crop growing conditions, the cost of production and agricultural policies.
Current imports.
Other such as social customs and habits, and the state's macroeconomic policies also have an impact on the supply of goods.
5, affecting the prices of other factors
(A) the economic cycles factors.
Commodity prices in various stages of the economic cycle will lead to changes in the futures market prices up or down.
Analysis of a longer period of time when futures prices should be close enough attention to internal and external economic situation.
General through national economic growth rate, gross national product and other indicators of economic prosperity and judgement of depression through the money supply, the level of the various CPI inflation judgement of the situation.
(B) financial and monetary factors
Financial and monetary factors on the futures prices mainly reflected the impact of interest rates and exchange rates in the two areas.
1, interest rates
2, the exchange rate
In addition, financial and monetary system as an important component of the stock and bond market, gold market and the foreign exchange market operations, will also affect the operation of the futures market.
(C) political factors
Politics and economy are closely related. A country and a region and the whole world forms of political change, all have an impact on the economy.
If the coup, strike, civil war, elections, labour disputes
Such as war, conflicts, economic sanctions, an important figure » »
Gulf War, 911,311, etc.
(D) policy factors
Domestic policy
International commodity agreements
The policy of international organizations
Such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC
(5) natural factors
Mainly climatic conditions, geographical changes and natural disasters. Specifically including earthquakes, floods, drought, pests, such as typhoons.

(6) speculation and psychological factors
The two co-proof, to promote each other.
Section II technical analysis (one of) Summary
    
First, technical analysis of the theoretical foundation
(A) the concept of technical analysis
            Technical analysis of market behavior through their own analysis to predict changes in the direction of market prices, mainly on the futures market's daily trading status, including price changes and the trading volume and open interest changes, and other information, according to the schedule drawn into a graphic sequence Or graphics, or a certain system of indicators, and then for these graphics, charts or indicators systems analysis, to predict futures prices approach.
(B) technical analysis of the three major assumptions
First, the market reflected all, this is the basis of technical analysis;
Second, the price of a trend change, this is a technical analysis of the most fundamental and core;
Third, history will repeat itself, which is decided by the human psychological factors determine the pattern of transactions.
History will not repeat itself, but it will be surprisingly similar!
(C) technical analysis of the characteristics of
First, quantitative indicators features: quantitative indicators can be directed to the turning point of the market;
The trend is chasing characteristics: its graphic charts indicate the trend of history characteristics, guide investors chasing trends;
Third, it is realistic visual characteristics: Technical Analysis of the figures by the use of information and a chart is the history of the record, no false assumptions and disadvantages.
Second, the futures market technical analysis and stock market technical analysis of the comparative
(A) bid approach
Futures contracts Bibi stock price means more complex.
Stock: yuan / share
Futures: yuan / ton, the yuan / short ton, cents / bushels cents / pound, the dollar / oz, the interest rate is the basic point, and so on.

(B) expiration date
Futures contracts expire in general, 2001, continuity is not strong.
(C) the level of margin
Bond futures to trade, its strong leverage to enlarge the size of the market. This allows a choice of access time of the steps in the futures market than in the stock market is even more important.

(D) the time and opportunity
The futures investors, timing is everything. In its long and short-term concept of the stock market significantly different.
(E) other areas
Comprehensive trend that the different indicators, charts or other indicators, shape than the stock market is even shorter, less complete. The futures market is more purely technical analysis on the prices of basic trend analysis and the application of traditional technology is the key indicators
Third, technical analysis of the major theoretical Profile
(A) of Dow Theory
1, Dow Theory and the formation of the basic idea
Dow Theory is the basis of technical analysis
Charles Henry is the founder of American Road (Charles H. Dow). To reflect the overall market trend, he and Edward Jones founded the Dow Jones average index.
In the "Wall Street Journal" published an article on the stock market analysis, finishing the future generations, a Dow Theory.

2, Dow Theory of the main principles
Market price indices reflect the market can be explained and the most;
Market volatility there are three trends. That the main trend of (Primary Trend), a secondary trend (Secondary Trend) and short-term trend (Near Term Trend).
Identify trends in trading volume in the role.
Closing price is the most important price.

3, Dow Theory and Application should pay attention to the problem
Dow Theory judgement on the general trend of a greater role, while the secondary and small fluctuations in the trend of little use, the futures market there is greater focus on minor trends and short-term fluctuations in;
Dow Theory of operable poor. Conclusions often lag behind actual price changes, and the theory itself there are also inadequate, need to modify and develop.
(B) Elliott Wave Theory
1, the basic idea of wave theory
Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave Theeory) is named after the Americans RNElliott a technical analysis methods.
Elliott Wave Theory is the first cycle-based. A complete cycle of eight to go through the process. That is, increase (decrease) 5 waves down (up) 3 waves. So on.
    
2, the main principle of wave theory
(1) wave theory to consider factors
Price movements by forming the shape
价格走势图in various high and low points in which the relative position
Completion of a form experienced by the length of time.
The above three areas, namely, shape, proportion and time. These three aspects are the first wave theory to consider, which forms the most important.

Wave Theory price of the basic structure
  
3, application of wave theory should pay attention to the problem
The largest wave of applications is less than the difficulties, that is, study and master the difficulties;
Face the same patterns, different people have not the method, which may be the result may also vary greatly;
Wave theory only consider the price factor on the form, while ignoring the impact of turnover, gives shape to create the opportunities provided. (Manufacturing deceive Line)
(C) Jiangen theory
Jiangen (William D. Gann ,1878-1955) in the 20th century's most famous investors in the stock and commodities futures market are Johnson's accomplishments. In its investment career, Jiangen average success rate as high as 88%.
Jiangen believe that the stock and futures markets also exist in the universe, the laws of nature, the market price run trend is not chaotic, but by mathematical methods of forecasting. -- Jiangen line.
1, Jiangen theory of the five basic prerequisites
Knowledge - can be accumulated, can not automatically bring wealth, but also apply what they have learned;
Patience - waiting for the market opportunity and time to wait for the open positions;
Courage - to overcome fear, courage, knowledge culture;
Health - the body of revolution, the capital;
Capital - capital markets permit.
2, the main Jiangen theory analysis
Jiangen circular structure plans forecast the price of running time cycle;
With a square concrete plans forecast the price-point;
Point line with the forecast price support level and resistance;
Jiangen round of the round will be the combination of time and price forecast.
(1) Jiangen Pie
Jiangen that everything in the universe are running round, regardless of substantive things, or abstract things.
5000,1000,100,1 the cycle of things, 24 hr;
360-degree forecast prices will be divided into 1 / 2, 1 / 3, 1 / 4, 1 / 8;
24hr according to law on the sub-divided into three, four and eight sub-sub, 3,6,9,12,15,16,18,21,0 points that are important moment;
Circumference of the arc into a number of days, 45,90,120,135,180,225,240,270,360 days. Number of days to separate the actual number of days trading division.
(2) Jiangen square plans
TU will be measured in square map of the way, is in a box of paper to a medium-term commodity prices low or high as the center, according to anti-clockwise rotation, the unit price will be followed to fill in, the centre prices The vertical and horizontal direction in the price of all Change Market prices of the support and pressure lines.
(3) Jiangen point line
Jiangen that the world of all things can not be separated from mathematics, also inseparable from the geometric shape, the commodity prices of support and pressure-point line can be used to be.
The coordinates 90 degrees to draw 7.5 degrees on the line, said 8 X1 point line. 15-degree angle line -4 X1 line, in line 18.25, 26.25 of the line, 45-degree line, 63.75,71.75,75,82.5 of the line.
(4) Jiangen round of the round
Round of the round has two implications:
First round of this round can be predicted that the price, can be predicted;
Second, the long-term cycle that can be analyzed, but also of short-term cycle.
3, Jiangen 12 Jietiao
Must first determine trends;
Close to the bottom and top trading, Powei stop-loss;
Rise and fall of 50 percent and 100 percent ratio of the market;
Market conditions can be adjusted for market trading week;
March 4 at a trend of operation;
City Daofeng adjusted every five to do seven short-term trading;
  
With a daily or weekly trading volume determine trends;
Adjustment of the city of Rafah time or the long range is not a normal phenomenon, forms to be reversed;
Record high considering buying recovery, a record low of recovery to consider selling;
Holidays are often big ups and downs in life, should be careful;
Homeopathy transactions, adherence to stop-loss;
Sudden changes in the trend, will not remain too long, regardless of time or the price is so.
(D) other major technical analysis theory Profile
1, the cycle theory
The theory is that, no matter what kind of price fluctuations, are not always in one direction to go. Price fluctuations inherent in the process of the local high and low, these high and low points of the emergence of a certain time in the law.
Long-period, the seasonal cycle, the basic cycle or middle period, the transaction cycle.

2, the opposite theory
Since the futures market to make money is only a small number of people, to get the big interests, we must inconsistent with the majority of the people.
Investors were full time in the game, investors Xi Luo of admission is the opposite theory in the concrete embodiment of operation.
Section III technical analysis (2) K-line theory
  
1, K Line painting and the main shape
(1) K Line Drawing
Key rate, fighting interval, the battlefield situation at a glance.
Open: video on the line
Closing price:
The highest price:
Low: entities


                                                  The hatched
(2) K line the main shape
Bald and Bald Yangxian Yinxian
Yangxian walked barefoot and walked barefoot Yinxian
Bald and walked barefoot in Yangxian Yinxian
Cross -
T font and font inverted T
A font - in line with the price of four

K-Line can be arbitrary time as the standard to paintings:
Three minutes, five minutes, 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 90 minutes, 180 minutes…
On the line, Zhou line, half line, in line…
2, K Line combined application
(A) separate the application of a K-Line
(1) shaved head walked barefoot on the Yangxian entities
  
(2) Bald walked barefoot small entities Yinxian

(3) shaved head walked barefoot in the Yangxian entities
(4) shaved head walked barefoot large entities Yinxian

(5) walked barefoot Yangxian
(6) Bald Yinxian

(7) bald Yangxian
(8) walked barefoot Yinxian

(9) have hatched from top to bottom of the Yangxian
(10) have hatched from top to bottom of Yinxian

(11) Cross -
(12) T font and font inverted T

Small hatched from top to bottom to a certain extent, can be ignored or not;
The general principle of judgement:
Pointing in one direction hatched the longer, the more detrimental to the future price movements in this direction.
Yinxian entities and the longer, more conducive to decline the longer the Yangxian entity, the more conducive to rise.
(B) from a combination of two K to speculate Quotes
K-Line combination of two K-Line is the relative position and the level of yin and yang to speculate Quotes.
Compared with the previous day, the second day of fighting two regional Duokong higher, the more conducive to rise, the lower, more conducive to decline.

1, or two consecutive two-yin
Help has been made party to a decisive victory, the basic direction of clear.
  
2, for Tiaokongyinxian and Yangxian
This combination depends on the market which appear on the stage, the length of hatched.
   
3, Tiaokong the turn of yin and yang
Note the opposite side of the force is being enhanced. But also in the mix up (down) on the way, or in the prices of high (low) bit.
   
4, two video and two-yin
That increase or decrease in the intensity has been weakened.
(C) Application of K packages need to pay attention to the problem
K-Line Portfolio Analysis Duokong only a description of the struggle between the two sides, the conclusion is relative;
K-Line Portfolio Analysis should be integrated Multi-K packages to the conclusion, through other methods of proof.
Technical Analysis Section IV (3)
Tangent theory
First, trend analysis
Definition: the trend is the commodity futures (stock) price fluctuations direction, or a Futures (stock) market's direction of movement.
Technical analysis of the trend is the premise of the two conditions.
Trends do not deny the existence of the twists and turns in the movement, movement in the market to adjust a variety of

Trend in the direction: up, down and level
The level and trend of rising trend
Second, support lines and pressure lines
Support Line and the pressure of the role of
Support Line (surport line), also known as resistance line. Is to prevent prices continue to decline the role.
Pressure line (resistance line) also called the resistance line. To prevent prices continue to rise with the role.
To determine possible breakthrough or impossible to break.
The reference to the sale of important positions.

Support Line and the pressure of the mutual conversion
Transforming the condition that the "breakthrough" (price, quantity, time)
  
Support Line and the pressure of the line and confirmed that
A support line or pressure on the trend of the importance of conditions to consider three aspects:
First, prices in the region at the length of time
Second, the corresponding size of the turnover of regional price
Third is the formation of regional support or pressure from the time the current distance.
When the above conditions have not been met, you will need the support of the reason for resistance to adjust.
Third, the trend line, and track lines
(A) the trend line
1, confirmed the trend line
The rising trend in the low to connect the two formed a linear trend line, it is a support line
On the decline in the market to connect the two high points of a straight-line formation of a downward trend line. Is a pressure line
The trend line can have many, the need for selection and judgement;
      
Painted by the trend lines were hit the number, the more effective the trend line;
The trend line Manyan the longer the time, the more effective.
  
2, the role of the trend line
On the future price movements from the binding effect;
After the break the trend was that price (the market) there will be a downturn.
3, the trend line break
a. closing price of breakthrough significance greater;
b. through, the more effective the farther distance;
c. crossing, the longer the stay, the more effective.
  
(B) of the track line (channel line)
Also known as Corridor rail line pipe line or lines, is based on a trend line method. With a trend line, the adoption of a peak or valley can make this trend line of parallel lines, that is, the track line.
   
The role of rail line is to restrict the scope of the change in the price.
The orbit of the trend is accelerating breakthroughs in the beginning.
Rail lines can also provide trend to the alarm.
4, Golden Section line and the percentage of
(A) 0.618 -
Drawing the first step:
0.191 0.382 0.618 0.809
1.191 1.382 1.618 1.809
2 2.191 2.382 2.618 2.809
Drawing the second step: to find a point, this is the end of rising prices, or to decline at the end of the market.
Example: for example to 10 yuan
When prices rise to 10 yuan beginning to slow, the forecast may be low:
8.09 = 10X0.809
6.18 = 10X0.618
3.82 = 10X0.382
1.91 = 10X0.191
   
If the 10 yuan for the decline in the prices low, the upward position of the resistance may have:
11.91 = 10X1.191
13.82 = 10X1.382
16.18 = 10X1.618
18.09 = 10X1.809
      20 = 10X2……
More than 20 locations rarely use.
  
(B) Percentage of
Consider the percentage of the starting point is people's psychological factors and the boundaries of some integral points.
His painting are two obvious high point and low, its price differences were multiplied by the number of special percentage, the result is the possible future support and resistance positions.
1 / 8 »3 / 8» 5 / 8 »7 / 8 1 1 / 3 2 / 3
5, Sector principle, speed lines and Gann
(A) Sector Principle (fan principle)
Based on principles of the Third Sector breakthrough in the principle, the three trend line once the breakthrough, the trend will reverse.
(B) line speed (speed line)
Speed line is also used to determine whether the reversal of the market approach. It will be increased or decreased each divided into three classes were, therefore, the method also called Rule of Thirds.

Speed line is the most important function of judging whether a trend is temporary or long-term breakthrough breakthrough (to cities).
Basic idea is: If the price breakthrough in the first 2 / 3 speed lines, will continue to test the 1 / 3 speed lines, if 1 / 3 speed lines were breakthroughs, the market will determine reversal.
(C) Gann
That is, Jiangen point line

Section IV technical analysis (4)
  
1. Breakthrough form reversal
Double-top, double bottom (double top and bottoms)
Head-and-shoulder top and shoulder at the end of the first (head and shoulders and bottoms pattern)
Triple top form at the end of (triple top and bottom patterns)
Circular shape (rounding top and bottom patterns)


Second, organize shape
Triangular shape
Symmetrical triangle (symmetrical triangles pattern)
Increased triangle (ascending triangles pattern)
Dropped triangle (decending triangles patterns)
Rectangle (box)

Third, several other forms
Laba Xing (broading formation)
Diamond (diamond formation)
Flag-shaped (flags formation)
Wedge (wedge formation)
Section IV technical analysis (5)
  
First, the moving average line
Calculation Method: Moving Average (MA) is the method of calculation for several consecutive days the market price (usually closing price) of the arithmetic average.
Parameters: the number of days, minutes and hours
Features: tracking trends, lagging behind, stability, or Zhuzhang help, support and pressure-line features.


Moving average of significance:
When the market operation in the moving average line, the buying power means that the market (demand) greater the contrary, when prices run in under the average price, it means that an over-supply, heavy selling.
Bulls are
With shorts

Gelanweier (Granvile) rules:
1, the average dropped from the starting line-taking, price from the wear on average;
  
2, prices increased from an average of continuous line, suddenly fell, but the average rose again near the line;

3, the price fell below average and continuous slump, far from the average.

4, the average line from the follow-up began, the average price from wearing from top to bottom;

5, continuous decline from the average price of a sudden rise in average fell again near the line;

6, the average price wear line, and consecutive skyrocketing, far from the average.
Second, pricing, trading volume and open interest
(A) the trading volume and open interest of the general relations
1, the definition of
Contract trading volume is a period of time the total number of contracts to buy or sell the contract total.
Open interest refers to a certain day to the closing date, neither the hedge-taking, there is no expiration of the contract delivery.
 
The trading volume and open interest of relations
First, only when the new buy and sell those positions at the same time when the market will increase, while trading volume increased.
Secondly, when the two sides to open only one party transactions (changing hands), the positions remain unchanged, but trading volume increased.
Third, the original transaction, who are open, open interest decreased transaction volume increase.
In addition, after the turnover, once a settlement, positions declined.

                    The buyer of the buyer's position changes
1 longs opening the granary short opening the granary increase (even opening the granary)
2 longs opening the granary long positions unchanged (longs changing hands)
3 short covering short opening the granary unchanged (short changing hands)
4 short covering to reduce long positions (even open)
2, the trading volume, open interest and prices of the general relations
The general view that if the trading volume and increases in both positions, the current price trend is likely to continue to develop in accordance with the current direction (either up or down). If the trading volume and open interest has fallen, the current price trend may be about to end.

 

The specific situation:
First, the trading volume and open interest with the increase in prices;
Second, the trading volume and open interest increased prices;
Third, the trading volume and open interest with lower prices and reduced;
Fourth, the trading volume and open interest decline in prices.
(B) the trading volume of
1, in a nutshell
In line with prices (rose increments, the price Liangjian) that the market is highly technical in
Deviated from the price of (or at Liang Jian, the price increments) that the market in technical Ruoshi
2, the trading volume price verification form
3, the futures market trading volume of the limitations
(C) Analysis of positions
U.S. CFTC every Friday this week announced the closing of the positions of the previous week, mainly divided into:
Non-commercial positions: funds and other large organizations in the speculative positions;
Commercial positions: Hedging is the main commercial positions;
Non-reporting positions: for the retail speculative forces.
Stock Market Fund was the driving force, the net more headroom in the market have greatly affected, to some extent, the market will reverse.